140 posts tagged “usa”
Vor einem Monat besprach ich in diesem Blog drei längerfristige Gefahrenherde für die westlichen Börsen. Plakativ jeweils mit einem I beginnend beschrieben (Irankonflikt, Inflation, Interhoch).
Dieses Mail soll es um mittelfristige Gefahren gehen, welche ich in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten aktuell werden könnten - vor allem, aber nicht nur in den USA. Ich habe diese mittelfristigen Gefahrenherde unter drei "C-Buchstaben" zusammengefasst:
- Commercial Real Estate:
Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”
Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.
- Consumer Credits ((inbesondere Kreditkarten))
Oct. 14 2009 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card lender, said the unit’s third-quarter write- offs rose and the company forecast more next year, signaling that the industry’s record losses may have longer to run.
...Credit-card defaults typically track the U.S. jobless rate, which climbed to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983. Card losses may peak at 12 percent to 13 percent in mid- 2010, Moody’s has said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adh5Vpzp8vc0
- Consumer Confidence
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in October, indicating job losses will mute household spending even as the economy grows.
...Falling Expectations
The index of expectations six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, fell to 68.6 from 73.5 in September, which was a two-year high.
Zu diesem dritten Punkt erschienen letzte Woche wie zitiert neue, ernüchternde Zahlen in den USA. Zusammen mit immer noch leicht ansteigender Arbeitslosigkeit könnte dies schlechte Konsumentenzahlen für das Weihnachtsquartal 2009 in den USA und mit Verzögerung weltweit zur Folge haben.
PS: Update: Zu sinkendem USD und hoher Verschuldung der Privathaushalte / Abhängigkeit der USA von Binnenkonsum siehe auch ein aktuelles Interview mit Peter Schiff...
Der Dollar ist der neue Yen:
"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."
"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades," he added.
Wie man seit mehr als einem Jahr beobachten kann: Der USD und US-Staatsanleihen korrelieren negativ mit praktisch jeder anderen Anlageform auf diesem Planeten ((letztes Jahr war der USD sehr stark während des Höhepunkts der Krise; nun fällt er seit Monaten, während Rohstoffe und Aktienkurse steigen...)).
Das wird nicht ewig so weitergehen, wie Roubini in einem Interview auf CNBC weiter feststellt:
Asset prices have been inflated by the cheap funds but the dollar cannot keep falling forever, and there could be "a market crash all over the world" when the currency's course is reversed.
But this will not happen too soon as the real economy is still very weak and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates close to 0 percent for longer, Roubini added.
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
...Japan and Europe are likely to grow by less than 1 percent, he said.
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."
The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.
"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.
More Trouble for Banks
More losses may be ahead for banks, as the residential property sector fell 30 percent and the commercial property sector is 40 percent down in the crisis, he added.
Quelle: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33477456 - Im verlinkten Artikel ist auch das Video in Kurzform ((8 Minuten)).
Little Professors scare you...
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, said the markets moved too far, too soon, too fast. He shares his outlook with CNBC...
Wie angekündigt noch der aktuelle Auszug des Updown-Tradingportfolios per Börsenschluss 2. Oktober 2009 ((damit sind die Verluste in den ersten zwei Oktobertagen schon enthalten)). Die Positionen sind alphabetisch angeordnet:
Zwei der grössten Positionen sind momentan in Gold ((IAU)) und Naturgas ((UNG)) via zwei bekannte ETFs. (( Mir sind die Probleme des Erdgas-ETFs UNG aufrgund dessen Grösse mit Contango etc. bewusst, ich halte UNG trotzdem als Langfristposition gleich wie Gold...)).
Den hohen Cash-Anteil werde ich voraussichtlich erst wieder zwischen der Berichtssaison ab Mitte Okober 2009 bis in den Frühling 2011 "abbauen" wenn es klarer ist, wohin die Reise geht...
October, noted for its spectacular market crashes, can be the spookiest month of the year.
(( Wer zum ersten Mal einen Performancebeitrag hier im Blog liest: Ich halte im Tradingportfolio keine Short-Positionen, keine Pennystocks oder gehebelten ETFs etc. Dies ist ein normales Long-Portfolio aus Aktien und/oder ETFs. Eine letzte Beschränkung: Auf Updown.com sind nur an den amerikanischen Börsen gehandelte Aktien/ETFs wählbar, wie im Auszug oben ersichtlich.))
Die Portfolio-Performance täglich aktualisiert findet man unter: http://www.updown.com/member/iamvoltron
Das TFTF 2.0-Modellportfolio ist weiterhin in Arbeit. News werden hier im Blog angekündigt und/oder via Twitter: http://twitter.com/talesftf
Drei der wichtigsten Gründe warum ich momentan einen hohen Cashbestand ((ca. 60% im Tradingportfolio)) halte und die nächste Berichtssaison abwarte:
- Iran-Gerangel mit dem Westen ((bei einem Konflikt mit den USA/Israel vor allem auch höhere Oelpreise))
- Inflationsgefahr ((vor allem im USD, obwohl ich persönlich für die nächsten Monate eher von Deflation ausgehe))
- Interhoch ((Nach Nullzinspolitik und Stimulation ein momentanes "Sugar High" an den Börsen, das nun zu Ende geht; mit anschliessendem Double Dip wenn die Realwirtschaft nicht mitzieht oder wegen der Inflationsgefahr die Zinsen stark steigen müssen...))
Zum zweiten Punkt der drohenden Inflationsgefahr ein Interview mit Julian Robertson (( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Robertson )):
Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.
“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.”
Siehe dazu auch den RGE Monitor-Newsletter vom 30. September 2009. Ein Szenario wie von Robertson beschrieben wird nach dem Regierungswechsel in Japan als noch wahrscheinlicher angesehen:
Across the Sea of Japan, however, the victory of the Democratic Party in September’s elections overturned a half century of rule by the pro-American Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This has implications for American power in Asia. Just before his election, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s wrote in a New York Times op-ed that Japan should seek trade and security solutions in Asia, not across the Pacific. Hints since the election that Tokyo may eventually tire of buying U.S. debt puts Japan squarely in line with China, the GCC and other disgruntled creditors.
PS: Die aktualisierte Zusammensetzung des Tradingportfolios per Ende September 2009 werde ich in den nächsten Tagen hier im Blog einstellen.
Der September ist bleibt ein schlechter Aktienmonat. Punkt. Eigentlich erstaunlich nach all den Jahren wenn nicht Jahrzehnten. Denn wenn alle die meisten Akteure eine Bewegung erwarten, sollte die Abwärtsbewegung eventuell schwächer ausfallen oder bereits im August beginnen:
...in all but one of the last 11 decades, September was a below-average performer. In more than half the decades, in fact, the month's rank was dead last.
Why, given such an overwhelming record, would anyone question September's bad record? Because there is no good theory for why the month should be such an awful month for the stock market. And, without such an explanation, there's the distinct possibility that the statistical pattern is just a fluke.
Such bogus patterns show up all the time, of course. My favorite example, as past readers of my column know, comes from David Leinweber, founding director of the Center for Innovative Financial Technology at the University of California, Berkeley. Several years ago he searched through all the data on a United Nations CD-ROM to find the indicator with the most statistically significant correlation with the S&P 500. His discovery: Butter production in Bangladesh.
((haha bezüglich der letzten Erkenntnis))
...
Still, the statistics underlying September's bad record are impressive. It was more than 20 years ago that -- as far as I can tell -- the first academic study appeared in which September's significantly below-average return was noted.
Since that study was completed, the spread between September's average return and that of all other months has been even wider than it was up until that point.
Quelle: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/septembers-record-so-bad-that-we-must-take-notice-2009-09-01
PS: Heute hat es jedenfalls schon entsprechend angefangen an den US-Börsen ((siehe dazu auch meinen Blogeintrag vom 17. August 2009)). Vergleiche auch den interessanten Eintrag zu den chinesischen Börsen, die schon anfangs August 2009 eingebrochen sind und weiter fallen könnten nach hohen Papiergewinnens seit Beginn des Jahres...
Video via http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/09/bloomberg-video-andy-xie-on-china.html
Professor Roubini präzisiert, dass er sich Mitte Juli zu positiv in der Presse zitiert sieht. Seine früheren Aussagen zu Dauer und Tiefe der Rezession seien konsistent und unverändert geblieben...
July 16, 2009
STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI
The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.
“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.
“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.
“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.
“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.
“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.
Update: Siehe dazu auch das CNBC-Interview Mitte Juli 2009 mit Roubini:
Zur Lage der Wirtschaft und der Finanzmärkte. Interviews auf Bloomberg zusammengefasst...
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The worst recession in half a century may be prolonged because consumers see few signs job losses and declines in home prices are ending, economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller said.
“The fundamental problem, as Franklin Delano Roosevelt said in 1933, is fear,” Shiller, a Yale University professor, said yesterday on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance.” The Great Depression was deepened by a “sense of lost confidence or animal spirits that was a self-fulfilling prophecy. The worry is that we will have the same kind of issue arising again,” he said.
The U.S. needs another stimulus package because President Barack Obama’s initial $787 billion plan hasn’t been implemented fast enough, according to Shiller. Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, said more spending is necessary to avoid stagnation like Japan’s in the 1990s.
Concern the economy isn’t recovering after 18 months of contraction pushed stocks down in the last four weeks after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 40 percent since March 9. Roubini and Shiller said a lasting improvement in consumer sentiment is needed before U.S. growth can resume.
In 2006, Roubini predicted the credit crisis that led to $1.5 trillion in losses for financial firms. Shiller is co- creator of the national home-price index that bears his name and the author of the books “Irrational Exuberance” and, with George Akerlof, “Animal Spirits.”
...
The recession will likely continue for six months as companies struggle to pay their creditors, he said. The cost of protecting corporate bonds in the U.S. from default jumped to the highest in six weeks on July 8, according to Phoenix Partners Group data.
“The wave of corporate defaults is going to be massive,” Roubini said. “We’re not out of the woods.”
Quelle: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aERlD846h2XY
PS: Noch negativer als Shiller zum US-Häusermarkt ist die Prognose der PMI-Gruppe aufgrund hoher Arbeitslosigkeit:
...likely scenario according to a report published on Tuesday by mortgage insurer PMI Group, according to which 28 of the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas face high odds of lower home prices in the first quarter of 2011 (vs. now).
...
Unemployment takes the relay baton
The areas with the worst odds of home price drops are in states that were in the eye of the housing bubble, including California and Florida, but the report notes that the increase in risk "is now largely being driven by rising unemployment and foreclosure rates."PMI's forecast contradicts Yale economist and housing guru Robert Shiller. Last week, commenting on a lower-than-expected drop in the Case-Shiller home price index in the month of April, he said: "My guess would be that home prices are going to level off -- they're not going to keep falling." Still, he cautioned "it's hard to predict" a speculative market. So, who is correct?
A sector at risk: Consumer discretionary
Although Shiller is well-informed and appropriately skeptical, I think we may witness something closer to PMI's scenario due to persistent high unemployment. If that turns out to be the case, it isn't good news for companies that rely heavily on a buoyant U.S. consumer.
Quelle: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/07/09/will-housing-bottom-in-2011.aspx?source=ihpsitthi0000001
Gutes Porträt im Economist zu Steven Chu, der in der Obama-Administration als Energieminister viel Einfluss auf die Verteilung öffentlicher Gelder und Lenkungsabgaben hat...
That, of course, requires money. Fortunately, Mr Chu has it. Besides his department’s annual budget of $26 billion, he has got his hands on $39 billion of the stimulus package. So he is able to spend like a drunken sailor when he chooses. On June 24th, for example, he announced that Ford would receive a loan of $6 billion to make its petrol-powered cars more efficient, while Nissan and a small Californian firm called Tesla Motors would get loans of $2 billion and $465m respectively to push forward with electric cars. On June 25th he followed this up by saying that $3.9 billion would be made available for revamping the American electricity grid. Building a “smart grid” is an important part of his plan. It will let wind and solar power be transmitted to the cities, and smooth out peaks and troughs in demand—for example by feeding power to the batteries of parked electric cars at night, and sucking it out of them during the day, if their owners agree.
It is not all largesse, though. The budget for hydrogen-powered vehicles, once the darlings of the alternative-energy lobby, has been slashed. Mr Chu does not believe in them. The long-awaited Yucca Mountain nuclear-waste dump has also been axed. He reckons the existing system of local storage is good for a few more decades and is looking into an old idea for dealing with nuclear waste: “burning” it in special reactors that will transmute it into more benign elements, thus eliminating the objection that nuclear power simply dumps the problem of waste in the laps of future generations.
http://www.economist.com/people/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13941982&source=hptextfeature
