24 posts tagged “roubini”
Der Dollar ist der neue Yen:
"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."
"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades," he added.
Wie man seit mehr als einem Jahr beobachten kann: Der USD und US-Staatsanleihen korrelieren negativ mit praktisch jeder anderen Anlageform auf diesem Planeten ((letztes Jahr war der USD sehr stark während des Höhepunkts der Krise; nun fällt er seit Monaten, während Rohstoffe und Aktienkurse steigen...)).
Das wird nicht ewig so weitergehen, wie Roubini in einem Interview auf CNBC weiter feststellt:
Asset prices have been inflated by the cheap funds but the dollar cannot keep falling forever, and there could be "a market crash all over the world" when the currency's course is reversed.
But this will not happen too soon as the real economy is still very weak and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates close to 0 percent for longer, Roubini added.
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
...Japan and Europe are likely to grow by less than 1 percent, he said.
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."
The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.
"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.
More Trouble for Banks
More losses may be ahead for banks, as the residential property sector fell 30 percent and the commercial property sector is 40 percent down in the crisis, he added.
Quelle: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33477456 - Im verlinkten Artikel ist auch das Video in Kurzform ((8 Minuten)).
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, said the markets moved too far, too soon, too fast. He shares his outlook with CNBC...
- Die ((europäische)) Solarbranche im Schweinezyklus
Wenn einerseits in Europa die Kapazitäten teilweise nicht mal zur Hälfte ausgelastet sind, was bilanzschwache Anbieter zu Kampfpreisen greifen lässt, und andererseits die Chinesen mit riesigen Kapazitäten auf den Markt drängen, erinnert das ein wenig an die Halbleiterbranche: Auch hier ist das Branchenwachstum mittelfristig kein Thema - kaum ein anderes Gut verzeichnet höheres Absatzwachstum als Chips, insbesondere Speicherchips. Das Problem sind (temporäre) Überkapazitäten, und damit der Preis, und damit die Marge. Dieses Phänomen des Schweinezyklus könnte der Solarbranche auch blühen, selbst wenn die aktuelle Nachfragedelle überwunden ist.
http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/marktberichte/:Das-Kapital-Solarworld-entzieht-sich-Trend/545609.html
- Verbot von Flash Orders in den USA ? ((siehe dazu auch die in vorherigen Einträgen erwähnten Dark Pools))
At issue are order types that route trades through private liquidity pools before being sent onto other exchanges for filling. Those with access to the so-called "flash orders," which are simultaneously made and taken away, can see how the market reacts to a flashed order and then place equities bets accordingly.
Critics have argued that having private-quote data available to some investors - those with access to the private liquidity pools - and not to all, creates a two-tiered system of investors where those with access could get a better price than those without.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-regulators-seen-moving-to-ban-dark-flash-orders-soon-2009-07-28
- Hedge Funds Investing for the Masses
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32172993/site/14081545
((Andrew Lo hatte ich in diesem Blog schon erwähnt, siehe dazu auch den Artikel über den Fonds in der NY Times:
Dr. Lo said the early returns suggest that the fund is providing what he had hoped for: additional diversification.
“Investors over the last few years have suffered from diversification-deficit disorder,” he said in an interview in AlphaSimplex’s offices in Cambridge, Mass. “They think they’re getting diversification from putting their money in large- and small-cap stocks, value and growth strategies and international and emerging markets. But the fact is that all of those went down last year.” ))
- ETFs im Anlageprozess ((Interview, über ähnliche Themen bezüglich ETF hatte ich mehrmals im Blog erwähnt))
http://www.youquant.com/CH/Interviews/20090728.phpEs ist kein Geheimnis, dass aktiv verwaltete Fonds Mühe haben, ihren selbst gewählten Referenzindex zu schlagen. Sind diese Fonds somit ein Auslaufmodell?
Menschen, die anderen Geld anvertrauen, wollen nur das Beste. Durchschnitt reicht da nicht aus. ETFs können aber nur durchschnittliche Erträge versprechen. Es wird jedoch jedes Jahr Fonds geben, die mehr als eine durchschnittliche Rendite erzielen. Nur sind diese schwierig zu finden. Und wenn man sie gefunden hat, fallen sie wieder hinter den Durchschnitt zurück. Und so beginnt das Spiel von vorne… Die Hoffnung aber stirbt zuletzt.
Dazu kommt, dass die Anbieter einen geringen Anreiz haben, ETFs zu forcieren. Es handelt sich schlicht um Standardprodukte, die eine geringe Marge aufweisen. Aus Sicht der Anbieter bringen komplexe, individualisierte Produkte wesentlich mehr Gewinnbeitrag, da sie auf Grund der geringeren Preiselastizität einen höheren Preissetzungsspielraum aufweisen.
- The End of the End of the Recession
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-end-recession
((sehr empfehlenswertes PDF-Dokument im Artikel))
- Flat Rate Tax-Modelle in der Schweiz
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/standard/Die-umstrittene-Flat-Rate-Tax-ist-nicht-zwingend-ungerecht/story/27154241
- Recession's end near ? ((CNN Roundtable mit illustren Gästen))
Professor Roubini präzisiert, dass er sich Mitte Juli zu positiv in der Presse zitiert sieht. Seine früheren Aussagen zu Dauer und Tiefe der Rezession seien konsistent und unverändert geblieben...
July 16, 2009
STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI
The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.
“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.
“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.
“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.
“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.
“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.
Update: Siehe dazu auch das CNBC-Interview Mitte Juli 2009 mit Roubini:
Zur Lage der Wirtschaft und der Finanzmärkte. Interviews auf Bloomberg zusammengefasst...
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The worst recession in half a century may be prolonged because consumers see few signs job losses and declines in home prices are ending, economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller said.
“The fundamental problem, as Franklin Delano Roosevelt said in 1933, is fear,” Shiller, a Yale University professor, said yesterday on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance.” The Great Depression was deepened by a “sense of lost confidence or animal spirits that was a self-fulfilling prophecy. The worry is that we will have the same kind of issue arising again,” he said.
The U.S. needs another stimulus package because President Barack Obama’s initial $787 billion plan hasn’t been implemented fast enough, according to Shiller. Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, said more spending is necessary to avoid stagnation like Japan’s in the 1990s.
Concern the economy isn’t recovering after 18 months of contraction pushed stocks down in the last four weeks after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 40 percent since March 9. Roubini and Shiller said a lasting improvement in consumer sentiment is needed before U.S. growth can resume.
In 2006, Roubini predicted the credit crisis that led to $1.5 trillion in losses for financial firms. Shiller is co- creator of the national home-price index that bears his name and the author of the books “Irrational Exuberance” and, with George Akerlof, “Animal Spirits.”
...
The recession will likely continue for six months as companies struggle to pay their creditors, he said. The cost of protecting corporate bonds in the U.S. from default jumped to the highest in six weeks on July 8, according to Phoenix Partners Group data.
“The wave of corporate defaults is going to be massive,” Roubini said. “We’re not out of the woods.”
Quelle: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aERlD846h2XY
PS: Noch negativer als Shiller zum US-Häusermarkt ist die Prognose der PMI-Gruppe aufgrund hoher Arbeitslosigkeit:
...likely scenario according to a report published on Tuesday by mortgage insurer PMI Group, according to which 28 of the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas face high odds of lower home prices in the first quarter of 2011 (vs. now).
...
Unemployment takes the relay baton
The areas with the worst odds of home price drops are in states that were in the eye of the housing bubble, including California and Florida, but the report notes that the increase in risk "is now largely being driven by rising unemployment and foreclosure rates."PMI's forecast contradicts Yale economist and housing guru Robert Shiller. Last week, commenting on a lower-than-expected drop in the Case-Shiller home price index in the month of April, he said: "My guess would be that home prices are going to level off -- they're not going to keep falling." Still, he cautioned "it's hard to predict" a speculative market. So, who is correct?
A sector at risk: Consumer discretionary
Although Shiller is well-informed and appropriately skeptical, I think we may witness something closer to PMI's scenario due to persistent high unemployment. If that turns out to be the case, it isn't good news for companies that rely heavily on a buoyant U.S. consumer.
Quelle: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/07/09/will-housing-bottom-in-2011.aspx?source=ihpsitthi0000001
...some more than others."
Faber sagte anfangs März einen Anstieg des S&P bis 1000 Punkte im Sommer 2009 voraus. Hier sein neuestes Interview auf Bloomberg von Ende April...
Ich bin bei der drohenden ((Hyper-))inflation bekanntlich nicht gleicher Meinung wie Peter Schiff oder in etwas geringerem Masse Marc Faber. Sehe zuerst eher eine Deflation oder zumindest Disinflation über die nächsten Monate.
Trotzdem lohnt es sich immer Fabers Meinung zu hören. Marc Faber zur Inflation in den USA und zum USD...
Risk of High Global Inflation: A Concern for Later, Not Now
- There has been rising concern that massive fiscal and monetary easing will breed inflation. In the short term, given the extent of the economic contraction, deflation is more likely than inflation in the advanced industrial countries. Contraction in aggregate demand and lower capacity utilization will weigh heavily on inflation. It is more appropriate to worry about inflation when there are clear signs of economic recovery. At that point, central banks may hesitate to roll back monetary stimulus for fear of nipping recovery in the bud. But until then, the increased risk of prolonged economic stagnation in the U.S. and China make deflation a more pressing issue than inflation
- QE policies are not currently adding to price inflation. The sharp deterioration in bank loans is preventing the "leakage" of bank reserves into broader money supply. As economic activity increases, central banks will be able to remove this loose monetary policy, slow the economy and contain inflation as effectively as they would in any economic recovery. The real risk in our view is not "uncontrollable" inflation, but rather a preference for inflation over deflation. This bias may lead to higher inflation in the medium term, but only by design (Nomura)
Warum stiegen die Märkte so stark wenn die Indikatoren in den USA und Westeuropa immer noch fallen ?
Diese Frage stelle ich mir auch seit ((spätestens)) Mitte April 2009, wurde im Telegraph aufgenommen:
But overall, markets and indicators are diverging. The price of oil has risen from $40 to $53 a barrel since February, but inventories are up and demand is down. US bank shares have risen sharply in spite of leaks that 10 out of 19 of them would fail the government’s not terribly exigent stress tests. Meanwhile, government bond yields are barely moved by deficits that would have been considered tragic a few years ago.
Bulls argue that the markets are thinking ahead: oil demand will turn soon and banks will shortly generate decent earnings to offset their losses. As for the deficits, the government can always shut down the money presses before inflation takes hold.
These may be true, but they do not justify the market euphoria. They are reminiscent of the dubious explanations provided by suspects in murder mysteries. Readers are well advised to ignore them, and look for the love interest. In market mysteries, the answer can be found in the money.
Quelle: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/5278103/Financial-markets-are-racing-well-ahead-of-the-real-world.html
Wann kommt die Korrektur ? ((Die Frage ist meiner Meinung nach eher wann als ob)). Siehe dazu auch...
The bear is dead, long live the bear
und...
We Can't Subsidize the Banks Forever
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124147831175584985.html ((Roubini Opinion piece *))
Kommt die Wende und das endgültige Auslaufen der momentan Rallye mit dem Zusammenbruch von General Motors in der heutigen Form und der endgültigen Bekanntgabe der "Stress Tests" bei den US-Banken ? Da alleine die Bank of America 34 bis 35 Milliarden USD neues Kapital brauchen wird, kann man diese Resultate wohl nicht mehr schönreden.
Versucht wird es trotzdem an den Märkten..der irrationale Ueberschwang geht kurzfristig weiter :)
Auf
jeden Fall wären bessere realwirtschaftliche Kennzahlen wie etwa die kommenden
US-Arbeitslosenzahlen und Inventar/Auftragszahlen/Bestelleingänge
bessere vorlaufende Indikatoren als die Börsenkurse und der Oelpreis,
die auf teils herbeigeredete Verbesserungen reagiert haben.
Die nächsten Wochen werden sehr spannend, wie diese Resultate und News in den USA "verdaut" werden.
Fazit: Es regiert das Prinzip Hoffnung, da viele Bestätigungen und
Indikatoren aus der Realwirtschaft fehlen. Ich bin positiver zu den Märkten ausserhalb der USA und Westeuropa eingestellt. Besonders Asien hatte den Tiefpunkt an den Märkten bereits im Oktober/November 2008 und erholt sich seither besser. (( Ausnahme vielleicht China, da immer noch sehr stark vom Export abhängig in EU/USA - aber Chinas Aktienmärkte sind sogar noch stärker gestiegen seit Herbst 2008:
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=4832773&fromSearch=n ))
_____________
* Siehe dazu Jim Cramers Replik an Roubini: "Perma-Panda" ((ROFL):
http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/05/05/cramer-calls-out-roubini/
Was soll man da noch sagen ? Zum unversöhnlichen Abschluss des Streits ein Video aus der Gruselkiste...
Roubini aktuell, Aussage deckt sich mit meinem gleichnamigen Blogeintrag von gestern ((20. April 09)). Ich hatte viele Positionen geschlossen, da ich nun wieder von fallenden ((oder im besseren Falle stagnierenden)) Kursen ausgehe...
Corporate earnings will “surprise on the downside,” Roubini said in a speech in Hong Kong today. “Lots of banks, even the better ones, are going to be in trouble.”
Banks around the world have reported $1.3 trillion in credit losses tied to the housing market collapse since 2007. The deficits, which spurred the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II, pushed the American government to pledge $12.8 trillion to stabilize the banking system and revive economic growth.
...
George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said on April 6 that U.S. stocks weren’t at the start of a bull market yet because the economy is still shrinking.
“The current rally is a bear-market rally,” Roubini told reporters after his speech. “I don’t expect a 50 percent adjustment that I expected two years ago, but this is a dead-cat bounce, sucker’s rally, whatever you want to call it.”
Holding Cash
Roubini’s view contradicts that of investor Marc Faber, who said on April 13 that the S&P 500 may rise to 1,000 in the next three months as government spending boosts bank profits.
Markets are “way ahead” of real economic data and this recession will last at least 24 months, Roubini said. He predicted China’s economy will grow 5.5 percent in 2009, which is slower than the 8 percent expansion the Chinese government is targeting.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2iU_jP3abUE
(( Die zitierten Ausserungen von Soros und Faber im Bloomberg-Artikel hatte ich in den vergangenen Wochen hier im Blog verlinkt. ))
PS: Siehe dazu auch die steigende Volatilität, die man über die nächsten Tage und Wochen wieder genauer beachten muss...
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark index for U.S. stock options rose the most in three months on renewed concern credit losses at banks are worsening. Europe’s options index jumped the most in seven weeks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGowcMf5eHv4
The markets turned in March, spring is coming and Roubini is smiling...
((via http://www.businessinsider.com/happy-50th-roubini-2009-3 ))
PS: Economics, the dismal science ? NOT !
Ohne in einen Personenkult zu verfallen: Den regelmässigeren Bloglesern wird aufgefallen dass ich die Meinungen von Faber wie Roubini gerne und oft beobachte.
Das heisst keineswegs, dass ich ihren Empfehlungen häufig folge; aber sie haben eigenständige Meinungen und schwimmen gegen den Strom und Herdentriebe - falls nötig, auch über längere Zeit.
Vor wenigen Tagen habe ich folgenden Screenshot der Titelseite auf cash.ch gemacht wo erstaunlicherweise gleich beide Herren prominent vertreten waren...
Ein Bild mit Symbolgehalt:
- Bären wie Faber und Roubini haben es im Zuge der Krise auf die Titelseiten geschafft und werden nicht mehr nur als "audiatur et altera pars"-Gäste Statisten eingeladen bzw. angehört. Besonders Roubinis Thesen kannte man noch vor 1-2 Jahren in Europa praktisch nicht (( nach meinen persönlichen Erfahrungen, auch der Name des Professors war weitgehend unbekannt)).
http://www.cash.ch/news/front/boersentalk_mit_marc_faber_aktien_steigen_bis_juli-776222-449
Ebenfalls am 9. März sagten Sie, die Börsen könnten bis Ende April steigen. Bleiben Sie bei der Aussage?
Wir hatten ja einen sehr starken Anstieg seither, beim S&P-500 26 Prozent. Wir weden eine kurzfristige Korrektur sehen, darauf folgt eine Hausse, die wahrscheinlich bis zum Juli geht.
Wie gross wird die derzeigige Korrektur ausfallen?
Wir haben grosse Volatilitäten. Ein Rückgang von 10 Prozent wäre nicht aussergewöhnlich. Für den S&P wäre es wichtig, dass er nicht mehr unter 741 Punkte fällt, das heisst unter den Stand vom 21. November (aktueller Stand S&P 500: 857, Anm. der Red.)
Haben wir die europäischen Tiefstände von Anfang März in dieser Krise erreicht?
Wir werden, wie gesagt, wohl eher wieder steigen. Ob wir dann in einem halben Jahr, in einem oder in drei Jahren neue Tiefstände sehen, kann ich nicht sagen. Wir hatten beispielsweise im Nikkei seit 1989 einige Rallyes von bis zu 40 Prozent, der Tiefstand wurde dann aber letztes Jahr erreicht. Eine Baisse kann sich also über Jahre erstrecken und unterbrochen werden durch grosse Rallyes.
Roubini weist an anderer Quelle darauf hin, dass diese ((siehe dazu auch meinen kürzlichen Eintrag mit dem Interview zu US-Banken mit der Analystin M. Whitney)) kurzfristigen Gewinne nur dank regulatorischen Aenderungen möglich waren:
http://greenlightadvisor.com/glablog/2009/04/16/roubini-global-economics-banks-in-the-spotlight/A look below the surface reveals some caveats to this positive picture. As Nouriel Roubini points out in a recent writing: “In brief, banks are benefitting from close to zero borrowing costs and fewer competitors; they are benefitting from a massive transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers given a dozen different government bailout and subsidy programs for the financial system; they are not properly provisioning/reserving for massive future loan losses; they are not properly marking down current losses from loans in delinquency; they are using the recent mark-to-market accounting changes by FASB to inflate the value of many assets; they are using a number of accounting tricks to minimize reported losses and maximize reported earnings; the Treasury is using a stress scenario for the stress tests that is not a true stress scenario as actual data are already running worse than the worst case scenario.”
Other commentators also point to the fact that many of these banks were among the main recipients of AIG bailout funds in previous months, e.g. Goldman Sachs ($12.9 billion), Merrill Lynch ($6.8 billion), Bank of America ($5.2 billion), Citigroup ($2.3 billion) and Wachovia ($1.5 billion), according to New York Times data. The firms involved dismiss this factor as immaterial for Q1 earnings. Nevertheless, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted in a report at the end of March that Treasury should require that AIG seek additional concessions from employees and existing derivatives counterparties.
PS: Somit bin ich momentan pessimistischer als beide prominente Bären eingestellt, was ein Novum wäre. Der Cashanteil bei meinem Tradingportfolio liegt immer noch bei ca. 35 bis 50%.
