Yes, I ((still)) think so. I argued the same since the end of September 2009 in the blog already. Good article posing the same question...
Tom Slocock, chief executive of Deutsche Private Wealth Management, says investors also have to try and gauge how much of the rally has been driven by the fiscal stimulus and how the market will respond when this starts to be removed.
And...
The fact that cautious managed funds were the best selling funds on Cofunds in September for the first time in 12 months also reflects the mood of investors. Similar results are likely to be revealed in the Investment Management Association’s monthly stats out tomorrow.
Perhaps the biggest issue for investors is where to recycle gains from equities. Few asset classes could be described as a strong buy and cash is yielding so little. One risk is therefore that inertia drives the markets, which would likely point to a correction if investors take flight if the supporting economic growth continues to be distant.
Good question where the equity money will be parked ((also remember that a lot of money still hasn't returned to the stock market since 2007!)). Because of inertia and fiscal stimulus the rally may continue into early 2010. But I don't want to be the last one standing when the financial music con-tango stops playing.
PS: The trading portfolio ((Bladetrading)) is invested about 60 to 65% by the end of October 2009; this was probably a mistake short-term. I should have the kept the cash ratio above 50 or 60%, the same as end of September 2009. Finally, Updown.com had frequent connection/timeout issues this month, so I couldn't update the portfolio daily. I will post a new update and holdings overview by the end of the year at the latest. In the meantime, you can have a look here with daily updates: http://updown.com/member/iamvoltron ((hopefully the site will load faster in the future once again))
PPS: Also see...
Nasdaq Breaks 50-DMA, S&P on the Brink
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/10/nasdaq-breaks-50dma-sp-on-the-brink.html
Der Dollar ist der neue Yen:
"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."
"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades," he added.
Wie man seit mehr als einem Jahr beobachten kann: Der USD und US-Staatsanleihen korrelieren negativ mit praktisch jeder anderen Anlageform auf diesem Planeten ((letztes Jahr war der USD sehr stark während des Höhepunkts der Krise; nun fällt er seit Monaten, während Rohstoffe und Aktienkurse steigen...)).
Das wird nicht ewig so weitergehen, wie Roubini in einem Interview auf CNBC weiter feststellt:
Asset prices have been inflated by the cheap funds but the dollar cannot keep falling forever, and there could be "a market crash all over the world" when the currency's course is reversed.
But this will not happen too soon as the real economy is still very weak and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates close to 0 percent for longer, Roubini added.
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
...Japan and Europe are likely to grow by less than 1 percent, he said.
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."
The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.
"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.
More Trouble for Banks
More losses may be ahead for banks, as the residential property sector fell 30 percent and the commercial property sector is 40 percent down in the crisis, he added.
Quelle: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33477456 - Im verlinkten Artikel ist auch das Video in Kurzform ((8 Minuten)).
Little Professors scare you...
BOO !
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, said the markets moved too far, too soon, too fast. He shares his outlook with CNBC...
Wie angekündigt noch der aktuelle Auszug des Updown-Tradingportfolios per Börsenschluss 2. Oktober 2009 ((damit sind die Verluste in den ersten zwei Oktobertagen schon enthalten)). Die Positionen sind alphabetisch angeordnet:
Zwei der grössten Positionen sind momentan in Gold ((IAU)) und Naturgas ((UNG)) via zwei bekannte ETFs. (( Mir sind die Probleme des Erdgas-ETFs UNG aufrgund dessen Grösse mit Contango etc. bewusst, ich halte UNG trotzdem als Langfristposition gleich wie Gold...)).
Den hohen Cash-Anteil werde ich voraussichtlich erst wieder zwischen der Berichtssaison ab Mitte Okober 2009 bis in den Frühling 2011 "abbauen" wenn es klarer ist, wohin die Reise geht...
October, noted for its spectacular market crashes, can be the spookiest month of the year.
(( Wer zum ersten Mal einen Performancebeitrag hier im Blog liest: Ich halte im Tradingportfolio keine Short-Positionen, keine Pennystocks oder gehebelten ETFs etc. Dies ist ein normales Long-Portfolio aus Aktien und/oder ETFs. Eine letzte Beschränkung: Auf Updown.com sind nur an den amerikanischen Börsen gehandelte Aktien/ETFs wählbar, wie im Auszug oben ersichtlich.))
Die Portfolio-Performance täglich aktualisiert findet man unter: http://www.updown.com/member/iamvoltron
Das TFTF 2.0-Modellportfolio ist weiterhin in Arbeit. News werden hier im Blog angekündigt und/oder via Twitter: http://twitter.com/talesftf
Drei interessante Videoteile ((von unten nach oben ansehen, bin grad editierfaul :) )). Ein Interview mit Marc Faber auf Bloomberg vom 22. September 2009...
