Posts
What Obama didn't say: "I implore your country and the rest of Asia to continue buying our USD treasury notes..."
Getting serious again, Japan already has enough in-house debt problems:
"Japan may already be past the point of no return," he ((hedgie David Einhorn)) said during a presentation at the Value Investing Congress in New York.
Japan's debt is equal to 190% of the country's gross domestic product and its government deficit will be 10% of GDP this year, according to Einhorn. Japan has been able to borrow money at roughly 2% a year to finance these deficits, partly because the country has many savers willing to buy low-yielding government bonds. However, some of these savers may begin spending instead as they enter retirement, Einhorn argued.
Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/einhorn-bets-on-major-currency-death-spiral-2009-10-19
Discussion on Einhorn's arguments regarding the Yen and the Japanese deficit here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ay_85DJSvpac
PS: I always thought that, as a a foreigner in Japan, you either bow or shake hands depending on the situation ((but never both)), see for example...
http://www.how-to-bow.com/
PPS: For more frequent updates in between blog posts: Please see my Twitter page at http://twitter.com/talesftf
Why is GS a more powerful force than ever in Investment Banking ? Good article here...
Goldman is coining it again for two reasons. First, global markets are booming — up 50% from the credit-crunch lows, as new money, much of it from governments, has gushed into the financial system. Second, with Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns off the street, Merrill Lynch a crippled shadow of its former self, and neither Citigroup nor UBS the forces of old, Goldman has a bigger slice of a growing pie. "We didn’t f*** up like the other guys. We’ve still got a balance sheet. So, now we’ve got a bigger and richer pot to piss in," is how one Goldman banker puts it. Small wonder the bank is on course to set aside over $20 billion for salaries and bonuses.
...
So far, so lucrative. But isn’t it simply unfair? Isn’t Goldman acting as the modern equivalent of war-time profiteer, taking advantage of global crisis and emergency government action to mint millions? Even the veteran financier George Soros says the big profits made by Wall Street banks are "hidden gifts" from the state.
((more in the lenghty article. 7 pages, it's worth reading))
Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6907681.ece
(( One poignant reader feedback says: If this is God's work, we should all be atheists. [ ;-) ] ))
PS: Also read this interesting insight into GS winning streaks of late...
And an indication of just how much of a hedge fund Goldman has become instead of a client servicer, the firm's Equities Commissions revenue for the quarter dropped to $930 million from $1.2 billion YoY, while prop Equities Trading skyrocketed from $354 million to $1.8 billion YoY! And just in case you were wondering someone, somewhere was motivated to destroy Fixed Income powerhouse Lehman and Bear, look no further than Goldman's Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities which did a gentle jump from $1.6 billion in Q3 2008 to $6 billion last quarter. And that explains all you need to know about motivations and backstops.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/absolute-perfection-goldman-loses-money-just-one-trading-day-q3
Vor einem Monat besprach ich in diesem Blog drei längerfristige Gefahrenherde für die westlichen Börsen. Plakativ jeweils mit einem I beginnend beschrieben (Irankonflikt, Inflation, Interhoch).
Dieses Mail soll es um mittelfristige Gefahren gehen, welche ich in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten aktuell werden könnten - vor allem, aber nicht nur in den USA. Ich habe diese mittelfristigen Gefahrenherde unter drei "C-Buchstaben" zusammengefasst:
- Commercial Real Estate:
Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”
Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.
- Consumer Credits ((inbesondere Kreditkarten))
Oct. 14 2009 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card lender, said the unit’s third-quarter write- offs rose and the company forecast more next year, signaling that the industry’s record losses may have longer to run.
...Credit-card defaults typically track the U.S. jobless rate, which climbed to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983. Card losses may peak at 12 percent to 13 percent in mid- 2010, Moody’s has said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adh5Vpzp8vc0
- Consumer Confidence
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in October, indicating job losses will mute household spending even as the economy grows.
...Falling Expectations
The index of expectations six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, fell to 68.6 from 73.5 in September, which was a two-year high.
Zu diesem dritten Punkt erschienen letzte Woche wie zitiert neue, ernüchternde Zahlen in den USA. Zusammen mit immer noch leicht ansteigender Arbeitslosigkeit könnte dies schlechte Konsumentenzahlen für das Weihnachtsquartal 2009 in den USA und mit Verzögerung weltweit zur Folge haben.
PS: Update: Zu sinkendem USD und hoher Verschuldung der Privathaushalte / Abhängigkeit der USA von Binnenkonsum siehe auch ein aktuelles Interview mit Peter Schiff...
Yes, I ((still)) think so. I argued the same since the end of September 2009 in the blog already. Good article posing the same question...
Tom Slocock, chief executive of Deutsche Private Wealth Management, says investors also have to try and gauge how much of the rally has been driven by the fiscal stimulus and how the market will respond when this starts to be removed.
And...
The fact that cautious managed funds were the best selling funds on Cofunds in September for the first time in 12 months also reflects the mood of investors. Similar results are likely to be revealed in the Investment Management Association’s monthly stats out tomorrow.
Perhaps the biggest issue for investors is where to recycle gains from equities. Few asset classes could be described as a strong buy and cash is yielding so little. One risk is therefore that inertia drives the markets, which would likely point to a correction if investors take flight if the supporting economic growth continues to be distant.
Good question where the equity money will be parked ((also remember that a lot of money still hasn't returned to the stock market since 2007!)). Because of inertia and fiscal stimulus the rally may continue into early 2010. But I don't want to be the last one standing when the financial music con-tango stops playing.
PS: The trading portfolio ((Bladetrading)) is invested about 60 to 65% by the end of October 2009; this was probably a mistake short-term. I should have the kept the cash ratio above 50 or 60%, the same as end of September 2009. Finally, Updown.com had frequent connection/timeout issues this month, so I couldn't update the portfolio daily. I will post a new update and holdings overview by the end of the year at the latest. In the meantime, you can have a look here with daily updates: http://updown.com/member/iamvoltron ((hopefully the site will load faster in the future once again))
PPS: Also see...
Nasdaq Breaks 50-DMA, S&P on the Brink
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/10/nasdaq-breaks-50dma-sp-on-the-brink.html
Der Dollar ist der neue Yen:
"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."
"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades," he added.
Wie man seit mehr als einem Jahr beobachten kann: Der USD und US-Staatsanleihen korrelieren negativ mit praktisch jeder anderen Anlageform auf diesem Planeten ((letztes Jahr war der USD sehr stark während des Höhepunkts der Krise; nun fällt er seit Monaten, während Rohstoffe und Aktienkurse steigen...)).
Das wird nicht ewig so weitergehen, wie Roubini in einem Interview auf CNBC weiter feststellt:
Asset prices have been inflated by the cheap funds but the dollar cannot keep falling forever, and there could be "a market crash all over the world" when the currency's course is reversed.
But this will not happen too soon as the real economy is still very weak and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates close to 0 percent for longer, Roubini added.
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
...Japan and Europe are likely to grow by less than 1 percent, he said.
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."
The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.
"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.
More Trouble for Banks
More losses may be ahead for banks, as the residential property sector fell 30 percent and the commercial property sector is 40 percent down in the crisis, he added.
Quelle: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33477456 - Im verlinkten Artikel ist auch das Video in Kurzform ((8 Minuten)).
Little Professors scare you...
BOO !
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, said the markets moved too far, too soon, too fast. He shares his outlook with CNBC...
Wie angekündigt noch der aktuelle Auszug des Updown-Tradingportfolios per Börsenschluss 2. Oktober 2009 ((damit sind die Verluste in den ersten zwei Oktobertagen schon enthalten)). Die Positionen sind alphabetisch angeordnet:
Zwei der grössten Positionen sind momentan in Gold ((IAU)) und Naturgas ((UNG)) via zwei bekannte ETFs. (( Mir sind die Probleme des Erdgas-ETFs UNG aufrgund dessen Grösse mit Contango etc. bewusst, ich halte UNG trotzdem als Langfristposition gleich wie Gold...)).
Den hohen Cash-Anteil werde ich voraussichtlich erst wieder zwischen der Berichtssaison ab Mitte Okober 2009 bis in den Frühling 2011 "abbauen" wenn es klarer ist, wohin die Reise geht...
October, noted for its spectacular market crashes, can be the spookiest month of the year.
(( Wer zum ersten Mal einen Performancebeitrag hier im Blog liest: Ich halte im Tradingportfolio keine Short-Positionen, keine Pennystocks oder gehebelten ETFs etc. Dies ist ein normales Long-Portfolio aus Aktien und/oder ETFs. Eine letzte Beschränkung: Auf Updown.com sind nur an den amerikanischen Börsen gehandelte Aktien/ETFs wählbar, wie im Auszug oben ersichtlich.))
Die Portfolio-Performance täglich aktualisiert findet man unter: http://www.updown.com/member/iamvoltron
Das TFTF 2.0-Modellportfolio ist weiterhin in Arbeit. News werden hier im Blog angekündigt und/oder via Twitter: http://twitter.com/talesftf
Drei interessante Videoteile ((von unten nach oben ansehen, bin grad editierfaul :) )). Ein Interview mit Marc Faber auf Bloomberg vom 22. September 2009...
Drei der wichtigsten Gründe warum ich momentan einen hohen Cashbestand ((ca. 60% im Tradingportfolio)) halte und die nächste Berichtssaison abwarte:
- Iran-Gerangel mit dem Westen ((bei einem Konflikt mit den USA/Israel vor allem auch höhere Oelpreise))
- Inflationsgefahr ((vor allem im USD, obwohl ich persönlich für die nächsten Monate eher von Deflation ausgehe))
- Interhoch ((Nach Nullzinspolitik und Stimulation ein momentanes "Sugar High" an den Börsen, das nun zu Ende geht; mit anschliessendem Double Dip wenn die Realwirtschaft nicht mitzieht oder wegen der Inflationsgefahr die Zinsen stark steigen müssen...))
Zum zweiten Punkt der drohenden Inflationsgefahr ein Interview mit Julian Robertson (( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Robertson )):
Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.
“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.”
Siehe dazu auch den RGE Monitor-Newsletter vom 30. September 2009. Ein Szenario wie von Robertson beschrieben wird nach dem Regierungswechsel in Japan als noch wahrscheinlicher angesehen:
Across the Sea of Japan, however, the victory of the Democratic Party in September’s elections overturned a half century of rule by the pro-American Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This has implications for American power in Asia. Just before his election, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s wrote in a New York Times op-ed that Japan should seek trade and security solutions in Asia, not across the Pacific. Hints since the election that Tokyo may eventually tire of buying U.S. debt puts Japan squarely in line with China, the GCC and other disgruntled creditors.
PS: Die aktualisierte Zusammensetzung des Tradingportfolios per Ende September 2009 werde ich in den nächsten Tagen hier im Blog einstellen.
