Die nächste Wirtschaftsblase kommt bestimmt ((5 Prognosen))
Die schwere Wirtschaftskrise ist in der Talsohle angekommen, die Aufräumarbeiten sind im vollen Gange. Doch die nächste Blase kommt. Prognosen im untenstehenden Artikel; vier Möglichkeiten werden besprochen...
It’s every investors dream - you buy into an investment theme or idea before anyone else has caught onto it and you ride it all the way up until it gets bubbly and you sell to some sucker who buys at the very top. Didn’t you wish you owned oil all last summer? Or Amazon.com in 1999? Or a house in 2006? Well, it’s not exactly reasonable to expect that you’ll buy into a bubble before anyone else, or for that matter, that you’ll sell at the peak, but that doesn’t mean we can’t dream…..And maybe even catch some of the ride in between the bottom and the top.
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Bubble #1 - The Inflation Bubble
Bubble #2 - The Food Bubble
Bubble #3 - The Emerging Market Bubble
Bubble #4 - The Alternative Energy Bubble
http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2
(( Und noch meine persönliche Bubbleprognose, um auf eine runde 5 zu kommen: Nanotech/Biotech. Sozusagen ein ewiges Mini-Bubble, das schwierig kulminieren kann weil die Firmen eine so lange Entwicklungszeit haben und so grosse Vorinvestitionen benötigen. ))
PS: Nachtrag / Update zu Bubble 3. Die USA wollen die kurzfristige Spekulation auf finiten Rohstoffen ((insbesondere Oel)) beschränken...
The plan is to set trading limits on oil, natural gas and other commodities of a "finite supply" the Wall Street Journal reports.
In the next two months the CFTC will hold a series of hearings to figure out the best way to use its authority to stop manipulation of the commodity markets.
The CFTC is likely nervous about the crazy volatility in energy prices. Last year's oil spike is still seen as a freaky occurence, with the blame laid at the feet of speculators. This year's doubling of oil prices, despite the fact that demand is low and supply is high, has many people worried that the market is being manipulated all over again.
(( http://www.businessinsider.com/cftc-is-going-after-the-speculators-2009-7 ))
PPS: Nachtrag: Interview mit dem bekannten Investor Mark Mobius zu den nächsten Blasen...
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- A new financial crisis will develop from the failure to effectively regulate derivatives and the extra global liquidity from stimulus spending, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said.
“Political pressure from investment banks and all the people that make money in derivatives” will prevent adequate regulation, said Mobius, who oversees $25 billion as executive chairman of Templeton in Singapore. “Definitely we’re going to have another crisis coming down,” he said in a phone interview from Istanbul on July 13.
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The U.S. Justice Department is investigating the market for credit-default swaps, Markit Group Ltd., the data provider majority-owned by Wall Street’s largest banks, said July 13.
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“Banks make so much money with these things that they don’t want transparency because the spreads are so generous when there’s no transparency,” he said.
A “very bad” crisis may emerge within five to seven years as stimulus money adds to financial volatility, Mobius said. Governments have pledged about $2 trillion in stimulus spending.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajsCDAWaoANg
